There have been a couple interesting articles recently on the current and future importance of programming skills.
Clive Thompson had an article in Wired a few months ago called coding for the masses:
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/11/st_thompson_wereallcoders/
Marc Prensky also wrote an article called Programming is the new literacy:
http://www.edutopia.org/programming-the-new-literacy
Thompson's take is that software affects almost everything we do, and therefore more of us need to become acquainted with the field of programming. In addition he says that understanding programming changes the way you look at things. It makes you realize that every problem is comprised of many smaller problems. This understanding of how to approach problem solving might enable people who use software to be less passive users ( accepting whatever a software company builds and delivers) and more of an educated consumer (it's not impossible to change this, and it's not even hard to do, so fix it to enable users to do X). The book Program or be Programmed by Douglas Rushkoff is cited in the Wired article, I'm planning on checking it out, I'll let you know if it's good.
The Prensky article argues that so many things we do in everyday life qualify as programming something. From setting up your universal remote to changing your settings in facebook or blogger. I do not believe that the fact that I change settings in a software I use makes me a programmer. I don't even necessarily agree that everyone will *need* to be able to program, say in C++ or Java. I do, however, think that there will be more instances where the barrier to entry for programming skills are lessened, and things like scratch, alice, flash, even android's app inventor are early examples of what I think will be an ongoing trend.
What I think is at the heart of the issue in this programming literacy conversation is to achieve agility in learning - to realize and be comfortable with the fact that for the rest of your life you will continually be learning new, and sometimes hard, things. I don't think the key is whether someone can program in one language or another per se, but that they have the attitude to roll up their sleeves and get dirty learning something new, even if it's hard and/or scary at first, for the sake of being able to do more things and be more of an active empowered participant, and less a passive receiver. Maybe we should design some sort of game to promote programmatic and hacker thinking in kids!
Even if someone does become proficient in one programming language, new languages come along and other languages fall off. I think it is the mindset to continually learn and challenge yourself that will be increasingly critical in our world.
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